Are winter storms getting worse in South West England?

Are winter storms becoming more frequent? 

It definitely seems so, but I decided to have a look at the science to see whether climate change is actually causing more UK storms, especially in the South West.  

What the long-term data actually shows

According to the Met Office, there is no clear long-term trend showing that the UK is experiencing more windstorms overall, or that peak wind speeds are consistently higher than in previous decades. 

Storminess in the UK varies significantly from year to year. It’s driven by large-scale atmospheric patterns over the North Atlantic.

Many of the most destructive historical storms occurred well before modern climate change became a dominant factor. The Great Storm of 1987 remains one of the most powerful wind events on record in southern England.

By David Wright, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4482159

What has changed is not the existence of storms, but the conditions they now arrive with.

Why storms feel more severe now

There is strong evidence that rainfall during storms has intensified. 

Warmer air holds more moisture, and when Atlantic low-pressure systems pass over the UK, they are increasingly capable of releasing larger volumes of rain in shorter periods of time.

In the South West, this translates into saturated ground, swollen rivers and rapid surface runoff. Locations that sit at the meeting point of river catchments and tidal influence, such as estuaries and low-lying towns, are especially vulnerable when heavy rain coincides with high tides.

Storm naming can also exaggerate perception. 

Named storms have only been part of UK forecasting since 2015, so a winter with several named systems can feel unprecedented, even when similar patterns existed decades ago without the same level of public attention.

Why the South West is particularly exposed

South West England faces the full force of Atlantic weather systems. 

Storms often make landfall here first, before tracking east or north-east across the country. This brings a combination of strong winds, prolonged rainfall and large waves.

Coastal erosion has become more visible along parts of the Cornish and Devon coast, not because storms are entirely new, but because rising sea levels mean waves reach further inland.

And inland, rolling hills and short, fast-flowing rivers mean intense rainfall can move quickly downstream. 

The role of climate change

Scientists are confident that warmer global temperatures increase the likelihood of heavier rainfall events. For the UK, this means winter storms are more likely to bring flooding impacts, even if wind speeds remain within historical ranges.

There is also growing concern about compound events. A storm that combines strong winds, intense rainfall, and a high spring tide can cause disruption far beyond what any one factor would produce alone. 

These overlapping impacts are becoming more relevant for coastal regions like Cornwall and Devon.

Why did we start naming storms?

​Storms started being named to make severe weather warnings clearer and more effective, not because there were suddenly more storms.

Before naming, forecasts used technical language that was easy to ignore or misunderstand. Giving a storm a name creates a single reference point that everyone uses, from weather forecasts and news reports to rail operators and ferry companies. 

When you hear a storm name, you know all updates relate to the same system.

The UK’s Met Office introduced storm naming in 2015 with Ireland’s Met Éireann to improve public awareness and safety. Research showed people were more likely to notice and act on warnings when storms were named.

Naming storms also helps coordination across borders and services, since Atlantic systems often affect several countries in quick succession.

So, the reason it can feel like there are more storms now is because every significant system is clearly labelled and widely reported.

So, are we getting more storms? 

The South West has always been one of the most exposed regions. What has changed is the background climate in which those storms occur. 

Heavier rainfall, higher sea levels, and greater awareness of risk combine to make modern storms feel more disruptive than those of the past.